default

Spring Approaches

Prince Fielder is the big news item today for the AL Central after signing a 9-year $214 million dollar deal with the Detroit Tigers. When it was announced last Friday that Victor Martinez had suffered a torn ACL during his winter workout regimen, the other AL Central teams saw a small window of opportunity for the 2012 season. By signing Fielder, the Tigers have all but slammed that window shut and nailed it to the frame.

Personally, I didn’t really think the Twins stood a chance. Sure, they will probably be better than last season and a .500 season is within reach, I just think they still have too many question-marks on their roster to compete. The fact that management is slashing the payroll by $15 million is a sign that they don’t think the Twins stand a chance either.

However, I would not be surprised if that $15 million is available at the trade deadline if the everything breaks the right way and the Twins somehow find themselves in the race. Now, if everyone is healthy that isn’t such a stretch. Imagine if Mauer, Morneau, Span, Liriano, and Baker perform up to their career numbers (not even their best), Perkins continues his excellent relief work, Capps’ arm is healthy and he’s back to his normal self, Joel Zumaya proves healthy and effective… I’m going to stop there, but there are definitely several reasons to be excited about the Twins and why they might be sleepers.

The roster seems pretty much set, and there is a ton of talent there. That talent just needs to be healthy and productive and I think the Twins will surprise some people.

 

default

Twins may lose Kubel’s Type-B compensation

As reported over at MLB Trade Rumors, the new Collective Bargaining agreement might be doing away with Type-B free agent compensation rewards.  Jason Kubel is a Type-B ranked free agent, and the Twins were looking to gain a ‘sandwich round’ pick if he decides to sign with another team. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case if he signs after this CBA is finalized.

I find it a little odd that they would do away with Type-B before Type-A, or at least changing Type-A. It would make sense that they players would want to do away with Type-A status since it has hurt several guys in the past, but I wouldn’t think they would care enough about Type-B compensation to accept that as a compromise. For the players, I don’t see how Type-B compensation really affects them at all. I guess the owners might have complained that Type-B sandwich picks were pushing the first round back too far, but I don’t see why this would concern the players at all.

Personally, I would have made “Type-A” behave like “Type-B” currently does, and have that be the only compensation. A player would be “Compensation Worthy” or “non-Compensation Worthy”, and the compensation worthy players would net their former teams a sandwich pick. On the other hand, I’m just glad the Players Association and MLB negotiate better than the NBA and their players do!

default

Twins to sign Jamey Carroll for two years

Craig Calcaterra over at NBC Sports is reporting that the Twins have signed Jamey Carroll for 2 years and around $7 million dollars.

A Terry Ryan Classic! I’m a little worried about his age, but he had a nice season in 2011 and had played decent middle-infield defense. I see him as more of a steady-hand guy than a range defender. Sounds good to me, after watching what the Twins threw out there last season.

It’s also being reported that he is going to be their everyday shortstop, a fact that probably sweetened the deal for Carroll. He seems like he’ll be adequate at the position and, knowing Gardy, he’ll be batting second. The good news is that Carroll has a decent track record of getting on base, so batting him second actually makes sense!

default

Let’s Do the Time Warp….

I was surprised with the Twins fired Bill Smith. The Minnesota Twins don’t fire anybody! However, I do think that letting Smith go was a good idea for the Twins. He seemed to lack the baseball knowledge to plan for the organizations future and also had a knack for buying “high” and selling “low”. (See Young, Delmon for both cases). Bringing back Terry Ryan to take his place is an interesting move. The young off-season seems to be rampant with stories about franchises interviewing many candidates for their GM openings, but the Twins have immediately filled the position from within. How very Twins-like of them!

That being said, I do think Terry Ryan is a good choice to try to bring this organization back under control. It felt like things were starting to get out of hand, with large contracts being handed out and prospects being traded away. The pressure to win in the new park probably caused him to make some of the decisions he made, but in the end he green-lighted some damaging transactions. Again, I’m not saying he caused the 99-loss debacle of 2011 but I didn’t really have much confidence in him. I also wonder if other GMs and agents could sense that he was in a little over his head and either didn’t want to deal with him or were excited to fleece him. Keep in mind that Ryan and the boys were Smith’s right-hand men, so they share some of the blame too. Ultimately though, Smith made the calls and paid the price.

I’m kind of excited to see what Terry Ryan does. Rumor has it right now that Jamey Carroll is close to signing with someone, and that the Twins were in contact with him recently. That would definitely would go along with Ryan’s plan of shoring up the middle of the diamond. In the past, Ryan did a pretty good job of mixing youngster and veterans, so hopefully he’ll bring some of that back. One thing I felt Bill Smith didn’t do was bring in marginal but steady veterans. They aren’t flashy but you usually know what you’re going to get.

One thing I hope Ryan will do is not be afraid of calling up players from the minors and adding them to the 40-man roster, even if they aren’t Rule-5 draft eligible yet. It was very frustrating to see the front office claim or trade for all these crummy relief pitchers when they have youngsters down on the farm who can do the same job. Guys like Slama, Delaney, Waldrop all could have done as poorly as the guys the Twins brought in, and would have done it at zero cost.

I also hope that Ryan will be able to so something about the AAA Rochester Red Wings. They have been abyssal for a few seasons now and painful to watch. It will be exciting to watch some of the talent in the low minors (where all the top prospect are) play for Rochester on their way up to the majors. That’s going to be soon, right?

default

Slowey (and Blackburn)

A few days ago, Dave Cameron wrote a post entitled Free Kevin Slowey. While I agree that Kevin definitely deserves a chance to start, I was slightly surprised at the shock in the comment section over Slowey being sent to the bullpen while Nick Blackburn was given a spot in the rotation.  I actually agree with the Twin’s decision, and I even agree with Scott Baker beating Slowey out for the 5th rotation spot (because wasn’t that really who the competition was between?)

For me, it comes down to the type of pitchers Blackburn and Slowey are. I don’t think it really has anything to do with who is getting paid more, or anything like that. Slowey has one of the best K/BB ratio in the majors, but has had problems with durability. Nick Blackburn pitches to contact and, when healthy, is good for a ~4.00 ERA and 200 IP. And I do think the reason Nick’s 2010 was so rough had to do with injury, more than anything. As soon as a pitcher has to stop using a pitch due to arm pain, they become a different kind of pitcher. Baker and Blackburn lost their sliders last year due to elbow pain. Both became sub-par pitchers. However, Blackburn looks to be healthy this season and has been solid this spring. Slowey has also been good, and has shown he’s able to pitch out of the bullpen.

When looking for a reliever, do you want someone who is going to allow the ball to be put in play, or do you want someone who will make the batter grab some pine? Slowey clearly has better swing-and-miss stuff, and if I had to choose someone to come into a game in relief with men on base, I go with the higher strikeout rate. Gardy is actually playing to both pitchers strengths while attempting to hide their weakness. Slowey’s weaknesses tend to be durability and the fact that batters tend to get to him the second or third time through. His strength is his control, which allows him to be stingy with the walks AND strike guys out by making them chase. Sounds like a good relief candidate to me. Blackburn’s weaknesses are his low strikeout rate and his propensity to allow the ball to be put in play. His strengths are durability and heavy movement on his pitches. The movement means he’ll probably be able to go through the line-up a couple times and still remain effective – it doesn’t matter as much that batters know what he has when it moves too much for them to make solid contact.

Maybe a move to the bullpen is what Slowey needs to give his career a jump start. With Kyle Gibson and others coming up through he system (Scott Diamond, anyone?) combined with the fact that he tends to be in Gardy’s dog house, I can see Slowey being passed over in the depth chart in the near future for mid-rotation starters. However, a very successful season in the bullpen might allow him to fill the role of high leverage relief pitcher that might be opening up next season if both Capps and Nathan are gone. From watching Slowey pitch in the past, he seem to have a calmness that closers usually have. He also seems to be a bit feisty and bit of a smart-alec – potentially annoying and unwanted in a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. Closers are of a different breed and some emotion or eccentricity are almost required.

If I were to make a bold prediction: Kevin Slowey will be the next Matt Guerrier. And if I were to go totally nuts and make a whack-job prediction: Slowey takes Nathan’s spot after the Twins let him and Capps walk after 2011. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff like vintage Nathan or Rivera, but his strikeout and walk rates were almost identical to Rivera’s last season. Other teams can’t come back to win if they can’t get base runners. Slowey did give up a lot more hits per nine innings than Mo last year. However, Kevin’s splits show that much of that damage comes after the 4th inning. His success with the first time through the opposing line-up bodes well for working out of the ‘pen in short stints. I think the difference between Slowey becoming a good reliever and an excellent reliever has to do with his home run rate. That spike in the second inning is probably due to the fact that he’s facing the other team’s 4-5-6 hitters most of the time. If he can make the adjustment to limit the gopher balls, I think he can be a very good late-game bullpen option. Who knows, maybe he’ll be able to reach back for a few more MPH when pitching in relief and that will be enough.

default

Déjà vu

Lets just say that I cringe every time the Twins take a lead versus the Yankees. I know they won two games againt New York this season and I remember one of those games was the Kubel grand slam game. Did the Twins hold onto a lead in the other victory, or did they make a comeback late in the game for that one as well? When is the last time the Twins took the lead first and held it against the Yanks?

Anyhow, It’s just frustrating to watch the Twins line up go into panic mode after the 5th inning and either flailing at everything, or making poor contact trying to swing out of their shoes. And don’t even get me started on how poor Mauer’s at-bats have been. It’s not that he’s grinding out tough at-bats and losing – it seems like he’s almost always behind 0-2, or 1-2 and I think he has more swing-and-misses these past two games than he had over his whole highschool career. Does anyone else Justin Morneau right about now? Get well buddy.

That’s all I’m going to mention about last night’s game. I’m practically already in off-season mode. Something I wanted to address is related to the non-strike call on Berkman last night but I guess it’s about the whole game calling in general. Over the last two games, the pitch tracker graphic TBS is using constantly shows balls several ball-width’s in off the out side of the plate (for lefties) being called strikes. And then there was that beauty of a pitch that Pavano threw that looked like it fell right into the zone. The graphic showed the pitch clearly on the inside corner, yet it was called a ball.

I want to know something: why do we even have that box there in the first place? What purpose does it serve? We can see for ourselves if a ball appears to be a ball or strike just by watching, so in my eyes the only thing this graphic does is make the umpires look bad. This would be like having a flashing light and siren over my cube at work that would go off every time I screwed up just a tiny bit. I don’t envy the umpires: not only do they have to answer to the players and managers but now they have to defend their calls to every person who watches the game on television.

Umpires don’t have a computer generated box floating in mid air telling them where a rigid strike zone is. They don’t have fancy physics and tracking software in their head that shows the entire path the ball takes to the plate, and the exact location it crosses the plate and hits the cather’s mitt. They look at a pitch and determine “is that a hittable pitch?”. If yes, it’s a strike. If not, it’s a ball. That’s how it has been for years and that’s how umps call the game now. Nobody strictly adheres to the “knees to letters” bullcrap that “defines” the strike zone. I think we should go back to the old way of doing it: no fancy computer graphics. If the batter doesn’t swing, but the ball looked hittable it’s a strike.

Think about it – a pitcher throws a ball down the middle of the plate and mid-torso on the batter. That little graphic might say it’s a ball because the box starts at the batter’s belt or bellybutton and umpires are encouraged to call this a ball because if they don’t they will get crucified because their opinion didn’t mesh with the pitch f/x data. In my opinion, if a pitcher throws that pitch and it’s not hit out of the park he should be credited with a strike.

The same goes for that pitch that Pavano threw last night. It’s just barely comes back and crosses the plate right on the black. It looks good, but the problem is that hitters don’t hit inside pitchers over the plate, they hit them out in front of the plate. But out in front of the plate, that perfect corner-nabbing pitch is probably several inches inside. Guess what – that pitch is not really hittable. Some people would say that’s why it’s a perfect pitch. Penalizing a player for not swinging at that pitch doesn’t seem very fair. I believe the spirit of the ‘strike’ is to discourage batters from watching an infinite number of pitches to find the exact one they want to hit. In this same spirit, the ‘ball’ is to discourage pitchers from throwing the ball to unhittable locations indefinitely.

That’s the real ‘human factor’ of the game to me, not blown calls.

default

Bring it!

It’s go time! Tonight I’m going to be rooting for the Twins against my best friend and my wife (both Yankees fans). While I’m hopefully optimistic, there’s always that sinking feeling that the Twins are going to fold under the pressure. Exacerbating that sinking feeling is the fact they they are facing the Yankees. Now, both teams are vastly different than last season – check it: the Twins actually get to lead with their #1 starter! – and the Twins actually won some games against New York this year. Jeter is mortal, and their big sluggers haven’t hit as well this season as in seasons past. Their rotation is also a bit of a mess and Mariano Rivera has seemed anything but himself recently.

However, I also worry about the Twins. Will Liriano be able to overcome his first-inning jitters which will surely be magnified by the magnitude (ug, sorry about that) of the game. Pavano has been a mess recently and coming at the end of a 200+ inning season and knowing that he’s had arm trouble in the past… Will Duensing be able to get it done? Recently he hasn’t seemed like the same pitcher he was earlier in the season when he was inducing extremely weak contact. Have other teams figured his slider our, or it is a combination of fatigue and soreness getting him down? And then there’s Mauer’s knee, Thome’s back….

Then again, it’s a short series. If the pitching can repeat what it did last year at this time, I think the 2010 version of the Twins offense can score enough runs to ruin the Yankee’s season.

Go Twins!

default

The Pilgrimage

Well, the wife and I are leaving bright and early tomorrow morning for the drive from Rochester, NY to Eden Prairie, MN. Google Maps says it’ll be a 17-18 hour drive, but we’re looking forward to it! Oh, and it better not rain…

We schedule the trip a while ago, so I’m pleasantly surprised that our trip coincides with a ridiculous hot streak and an all but wrapped up pennant race. As much fun as it is to be biting my nails right down the the wire I’m going to enjoy being able to relax during September. Last season the Twins went all-out to win the division and make the playoffs and I feel that it cost them during October. Wont it be nice to actually have our #1 starting pitching the first game of the ALDS?

Also, Minnesota is only one game back from having the best record in the AL. That really goes to show how good this team really is: they aren’t scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs with 82 wins, they are dominating the competition and could possibly have  home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs. I think we can safely say that the Twins are one of the big boys now.

I’ll probably be posting pictures of the trip when we get back. For now lets hope weather.com is correct in their prediction of sun and no rain!

default

The Young and the LaRoche

Hmm, it was worth a try.  It’s my first post in a while, so I’ll leave the title alone for now.

I wanted to post to say how awesome Delmon Young has been this season. His triple slash numbers for .295/.333/.500 are only up slightly from his rookie year with Tampa (.317/.336/.476) but that doesn’t mean Delmon hasn’t ‘turned the corner’ in 2010:

Exhibit A: 1.57 K/BB

What is this? A decent strikeout to walk ratio?? Last year, his rate was 7.67 K/BB – that’s about an 80% improvement! He has pretty much halved his strikeouts, and almost doubled his walk rate.

Exhibit B: 11.0 EBH%  (Percentage of plate appearances resulting in an extra-base hit)

Delmon’s new selectivity has led to an increase in power, from an Isolated Power of .142 in 2009, to a .205 mark this season. For the record, Joe Mauer has an ISO of .129  and a 9.2 EBH% so far this season. (To be fair, a ton of Mauer’s plate appearances end in walks).

The title of this post also mentions a LaRoche, Andy LaRoche specifically. The Pirates just called up prized prospect Pedro Alvarez to play third base, and LaRoche no longer has a position to play. My thinking is: how about the Twins try to acquire LaRoche instead of the carcass of Mike Lowell? LaRoche is younger and was once Baseball’s #19 best prospect. He could take the place of Brendan Harris on the roster, and could either serve the same purpose as Harris or start at third. If Gardenhire decides he wants to start LaRoche at third, Valencia should be sent back to Rochester to play every day. It looks like LaRoche is nearing arbitration, so the Twins would be able to non-tender him after this season if he doesn’t work out.

I guess it all depends how ‘out of favor’ LaRoche is in Pittsburgh.  If they still think he has untapped potential, they might be asking more than the Red Sox will ask for Lowell. If they are willing to give him up for a mid-level prospect or two, I say the Twins should give him a try.

default

Uh oh….

I was a bit busy this weekend, so I didn’t really keep up with Twins’ news. I skim my RSS feed today to learn that Mijares is on the DL with elbow soreness (I was wondering what Burnett was doing back in the majors) and Neshek is out of commission for a few days with a middle finger issue. To top is off, Blackburn is also complaining about elbow soreness. Elbow soreness = bad news.

Like I said earlier in the year, it’ll be injuries that will bring the Twins down in 2010. If, God forbid, Blackburn is sidelined for the year, do the Twins go out and splurge on Washburn and hope for the best? Personally, I think either Duensing or Perkins could pitch as well as Washburn can at this point.

Luckily, the offense is still clicking and Baker, Slowey and Liriano seem to be anchoring the starting rotation. As long as they have that going for them, the Twins should be okay.

© Dan's Twins Jabber
CyberChimps